The One About… Covid by the Numbers, Day 17

Posted on April 6, 2020 by D. G. Speirs

Tonight’s Covid By The Numbers update:

As of 7 p.m., the John Hopkins website reports 364,723 cases in the U.S. That is an increase of 29,199, up from yesterday’s increase of 26,991.

The daily rate of increase was 8.7%, a definite downtick from yesterday’s 12.7%.

The day over day change was 8.2%.

The five-day running average of new cases is 29,841.

The morbidity rate of Covid-19 in the U.S. ticked up again and has now reached 3.0%.

To put these in perspective:Odds of contracting Covid-19: 1 in 893.Odds if infected of recovery: 1 in 19Odds if infected of fatality: 1 in 34

We had another increase in the number of recovered cases. It now stands at 19,346, an 18.9% increase from yesterday. Another sign of a change in the progression of this disease is when we see more cases recovered than newly reported as infected. (For example, cases recovered / new cases = 2080/29199 = .07) . We want a number above 1.0 here.

As always, be safe, be smart, and most of all, be kind to yourself and others.

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The One About… Covid by the Numbers, Day 16

Posted on April 5, 2020 by D. G. Speirs

Tonight’s Covid-19 update:

As of 7 p.m., the John Hopkins website reports 335,524 cases in the U.S. That is an increase of 26,991, down from yesterday’s increase of 34,653. The daily rate of increase was 8.7%, a definite downtick from yesterday’s 12.7%. The day over day change was -22.1% – basically, there were a quarter fewer cases today than Saturday. If that continues, if we start seeing decreasing numbers, this would be a sign we’ve reached a peak.

The morbidity rate of Covid-19 in the U.S. ticked up again and is now 2.8%.

To put these in perspective:
Odds of contracting Covid-19: 1 in 971. Yes, that has dropped below 1 in 1000 for the first time.
Odds if infected of recovery: 1 in 19
Odds if infected of fatality: 1 in 35

We had another increase in the number of recovered cases. It now stands at 17,266, an 18.9% increase from yesterday. Another sign of a change in the progression of this disease is when we see more cases recovered than newly reported as infected. We’re still a ways off.

One caveat: A story in today’s Washington Post states that the number of fatalities is almost certainly underreported.

As always, be safe, be smart, and most of all, be kind to yourself and others.

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The One About… Covid by the Numbers, Day 15

Posted on April 4, 2020 by D. G. Speirs

I’m an analytical sort of guy. With all the stuff coming out about the disease, and our response to it in the U.S., I decided to start a daily post each evening on Facebook. At 7 p.m., I’d take the numbers from the John Hopkins Covid-19 tracking site and do the math, trying to spot a hopeful trend in the numbers.

A little more than two weeks in, I’m still looking for that. The best news I’ve seen is the rate of growth compared to the total has slowly been trickling downward. That could mean it’s not running as fast through the population, or just a limit due to testing limitations. I suspect the latter.

I started on Facebook, added LinkedIn, and now will post here daily each evening. I’m still looking for the wave to crest – but it seems to be further and further away each day.

Tonight’s Covid-19 update:

As of 7 p.m., the John Hopkins website reports 308,533 cases in the U.S. That is an increase of 34,653, up from yesterday’s increase of 31,698. That is, once again, the largest number of cases reported in a day so far. The daily rate of increase was 12.7%, a slight downtick from yesterday’s 13.1%. The day over day change was 9.3%. The morbidity rate of Covid-19 in the U.S. ticked up again and is now 2.7%.

To put these in perspective:
Odds of contracting Covid-19: 1 in 1056
Odds if infected of recovery: 1 in 21
Odds if infected of fatality: 1 in 37

On the good news front, we had a dramatic increase in the number of recovered cases. It now stands at 14,520, a 52.5% increase from yesterday.

To give you some perspective on the spread:
From the first case to the 100,000th – 66 days
From 100,000 to 200,000 – 5 days
From 200,000 to 300,000 – 3 days

As always, be safe, be smart, and most of all, be kind to yourself and others.
#covid19 #covidbythenumbers

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