The One About… Covid by the Numbers, Day 16

Tonight’s Covid-19 update:

As of 7 p.m., the John Hopkins website reports 335,524 cases in the U.S. That is an increase of 26,991, down from yesterday’s increase of 34,653. The daily rate of increase was 8.7%, a definite downtick from yesterday’s 12.7%. The day over day change was -22.1% – basically, there were a quarter fewer cases today than Saturday. If that continues, if we start seeing decreasing numbers, this would be a sign we’ve reached a peak.

The morbidity rate of Covid-19 in the U.S. ticked up again and is now 2.8%.

To put these in perspective:
Odds of contracting Covid-19: 1 in 971. Yes, that has dropped below 1 in 1000 for the first time.
Odds if infected of recovery: 1 in 19
Odds if infected of fatality: 1 in 35

We had another increase in the number of recovered cases. It now stands at 17,266, an 18.9% increase from yesterday. Another sign of a change in the progression of this disease is when we see more cases recovered than newly reported as infected. We’re still a ways off.

One caveat: A story in today’s Washington Post states that the number of fatalities is almost certainly underreported.

As always, be safe, be smart, and most of all, be kind to yourself and others.

Posted in Commentary, Covid | Tagged ,

The One About… Covid by the Numbers, Day 15

I’m an analytical sort of guy. With all the stuff coming out about the disease, and our response to it in the U.S., I decided to start a daily post each evening on Facebook. At 7 p.m., I’d take the numbers from the John Hopkins Covid-19 tracking site and do the math, trying to spot a hopeful trend in the numbers.

A little more than two weeks in, I’m still looking for that. The best news I’ve seen is the rate of growth compared to the total has slowly been trickling downward. That could mean it’s not running as fast through the population, or just a limit due to testing limitations. I suspect the latter.

I started on Facebook, added LinkedIn, and now will post here daily each evening. I’m still looking for the wave to crest – but it seems to be further and further away each day.

Tonight’s Covid-19 update:

As of 7 p.m., the John Hopkins website reports 308,533 cases in the U.S. That is an increase of 34,653, up from yesterday’s increase of 31,698. That is, once again, the largest number of cases reported in a day so far. The daily rate of increase was 12.7%, a slight downtick from yesterday’s 13.1%. The day over day change was 9.3%. The morbidity rate of Covid-19 in the U.S. ticked up again and is now 2.7%.

To put these in perspective:
Odds of contracting Covid-19: 1 in 1056
Odds if infected of recovery: 1 in 21
Odds if infected of fatality: 1 in 37

On the good news front, we had a dramatic increase in the number of recovered cases. It now stands at 14,520, a 52.5% increase from yesterday.

To give you some perspective on the spread:
From the first case to the 100,000th – 66 days
From 100,000 to 200,000 – 5 days
From 200,000 to 300,000 – 3 days

As always, be safe, be smart, and most of all, be kind to yourself and others.
#covid19 #covidbythenumbers

Posted in Commentary, Covid | Tagged , ,

The One About… Fear Itself

Look.

I know you’re scared out there. This is some scary stuff. But there has to be a middle ground, somewhere between total denial and total panic. That’s where I plan to stay during all of this.

I’ve been affected by this – someone in my family has already gotten this bug, and two others are under observation as possible cases. But my running around in circles like my hair was on fire (what little I have of it) will not improve their situations – or my own.

Then again, neither will my participation in the rock-throwing on a political level. You want to say the government’s response was horrible? Fine. You think it was line-perfect? Good for you. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle – and again, does us no good to argue about, because at the moment, we can’t affect it. All we’re doing is reacting in fear, trying to find some outlet for it.

FDR said, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” I always thought it was a good soundbite, but the meaning of it has become so evident in these past few days. It isn’t the condition we need to be concerned bout – it is our own reactions to it.

So what’s the solution? As I said, I am choosing to be in the sensible center. I am realistic about the progression of Covid in the country, but I’m also hopeful that steps taken will slow its spread throughout our society. I can analyze numbers and watch for trends, both here and abroad, and will continue to keep an eye on things daily…

And I’m always going to try to find and share the good things we do for each other through this, with the knowledge we will get through this.

Please remember, if you’re feeling scared, so is the other person. So I implore you, treat each other gently. You’ll feel better in the end about your choices.

Be well, be safe, and most of all, be positive.

DGS

Posted in Commentary, personal | Tagged , , ,